Socioeconomic Scenarios

Future Population Trends

With various growth forecasts over the next 20 years, the future is predicted to see a population increase of almost 9 billion people. The change in population size will be driven mostly by factors such as age structure, death rates, and fertility rates. According to Lutz (2013), the global fertility rate has declined significantly over the last half-century and is predicted to fall much lower in the next 20 years. Now, the average number of children per woman is less than 2.4, down from 2.5 between 2010 and 2015, and it is expected to fall to 2.1 in the next decades (Lutz, 2013). Life expectancy had increased to 69 between 2010 and 2105 from 48 years in 1950-1955, and the rise is anticipated to continue. With the reduction in the fertility rate and reduced death rates, the age structure of the world population is expected to comprise of more adults than children in 20 years. The world median age is estimated at 37 years in the next two decades.

Population Growth in Houston

In my region, Houston, the population is anticipated to grow by about two million more people in 20 years (Colby & Ortman, 2015). The growth will be mainly due to low death rate and migration. It is expected that there will be more individuals moving into Houston as compared to those moving out of the region. At the same time, despite the reduction in the fertility rate, the number of births is expected to exceed the number of deaths in the next 20 years. Therefore, the population trends that will have the most impact on the region and my organization are mostly migration into the area and reduced death rates (high life expectancy). A drop in mortality rates will cause a rise in life expectancy which will, in turn, change the population structure of the area whereby there will be few young people and more old individuals. As a result, in my organization, the workforce will mostly comprise of persons aged 60 years and above (Ortman et al., 2014). The participation rate of old employees is low leading to less productivity. It is expected that aging workers will be better educated and will hence attract improved salaries. Owing to the reduced performance of old labor force and increased salary payments made to them, they will in some way be a liability to my organization. On the other hand, migration will raise consumption of energy, increase pollution, and mount stress on social amenities. However, it may provide affordable labor to organizations.

Projected Growth/Socioeconomic Trends

The projected growth/socioeconomic trends that will have predictable outcomes include a drop in fertility rates, increase in life expectancy, and change in age structure (Coale & Hoover, 2015). For example, it is anticipated that when there is a reduction in the fertility rate, the number of births will reduce considerably hence minimizing the young people’s share of the population. The rise in life expectancy will mean that deaths will be limited; thus, the number of the aging individuals will grow. Additionally, the age structure will change depending on the age group that forms the most of the community, and the outcome can be anticipated. Nonetheless, increase in migration may have consequences that might not be easy to predict, especially when it involves movement from one country to another (Coale & Hoover, 2015). For instance, migration has in the past caused unexpected events such as terrorism that claimed lives among others.

References

The data used in this paper is obtained from various sources such as an article written by Ortman et al. that was published in the United States Census Bureau, Economics and Statistics Administration, and US Department of Commerce Journal. The resource contains secondary information that the author researched from other literature. The other two are “The future population of the world: what can we assume today” by Lutz and “Population growth and economic development” by Coale and Hoover. They contain both primary and secondary information as the authors conducted first-hand research as well as got data from the past writings. Additional information is available in the article, “Projections of the size and composition of the US population” by Colby et al. Further information can be obtained from economic and population publications such as European spine journal and American Journal of Economics and Sociology.

References

Coale, A. J., & Hoover, E. M. (2015). Population growth and economic development. Princeton University Press.

Colby, S. L., & Ortman, J. M. (2015). Projections of the size and composition of the US population: 2014 to 2060. US Census Bureau, 9.

Lutz, W. (2013). The future population of the world: what can we assume today. Routledge.

Ortman, J. M., Velkoff, V. A., & Hogan, H. (2014). An aging nation: the older population in the United States. United States Census Bureau, Economics and Statistics Administration, US Department of Commerce. Pp 1-28.